South African Airways (SAA) is planning to grow its fleet to around 40 aircraft in the coming years as part of its efforts to become re-established as the country’s primary international airline.
The carrier is trying to secure more short- and long-haul aircraft in the short term to be able to grow in both African regional and long-haul markets, but CEO John Lamola said the acute shortage of aircraft globally is affecting SAA in its growth plans.
SAA is currently operating 13 aircraft. Among them are one Airbus A330-300, one A340-300, eight A320s and two Boeing 737-800s wet-leased from SunExpress. By the end of its 2025 fiscal year (March 3, 2025), SAA aims to grow the fleet to 21 aircraft, including more A320s and A330s, plus one additional A340.
SunExpress will also fly four 737s for SAA in the 2024-25 northern winter season. In the medium term, SAA wants to secure either A350s or 787s to be able to expand its long-haul services. The A320 fleet is to increase to 14 aircraft by the end of fiscal 2025.
The growing A320 fleet is to be used for more African destinations. Zambia, Namibia, Kenya and South Africa form a cluster of countries within the planned broader, liberalized African air transport market that is already open skies. “We need competitive aircraft, but we have been taken aback by the problems of the A320neos,” Lamola said. “We are hoping to pick some that are not affected by the Pratt & Whitney issues.”
“SAA has a national mandate for tourist and business markets that informs our network plans,” Lamola said. The carrier is currently fully government-owned, and a process to sell a 51% stake to the Takatso Consortium has been much delayed. Lamola said he expects the South African Parliament to clear the way for the private investment by the end of the first quarter of 2024.
SAA relaunched long-haul flying after the COVID hiatus, as well as the restructuring in business rescue in October with an A330-300 service from Johannesburg to Sao Paulo that was complemented by flights from Cape Town in November.
Combined, SAA now has four weekly frequencies to Sao Paulo, compared to 10 in former years. The second long-haul route will be to Perth, Australia. According to Lamola, SAA will focus on densifying the two routes in 2024 before introducing more long-haul destinations thereafter.
The airline took delivery of a second A330 in September, which will be operational by the end of the month, according to Lamola. A second A340-300, which has been operated by SAA in the past, is also set to be reactivated. SAA is also trying to secure more A330s in the short term to speed up its network expansion. In Europe, Frankfurt and London are likely next destinations. Both can be served from Johannesburg with A330-300s “with no significant payload penalty,” according to CCO Tebogo Tsimane.
In the medium term, “we have the A350 in our plan for expansion into Europe and North America,” Tsimane added. “But we cannot rule out the 787 if they are more economical for our purposes.” He cautioned that switching to Boeing would be hard for an all-Airbus operator, though one option could be to operate Boeing widebodies and Airbus narrowbodies.
The network is to be “amplified” through alliances, Lamola said. South African is still a member of the Star Alliance and has, among others, a codeshare agreement with Lufthansa, “which takes some of the pressure off.”
Lamola also sees a good deal more growth potential in the South African domestic market, where several airlines have disappeared, including its own low-cost affiliate Mango, as well as Comair, which operated the Kulula and British Airways franchises.
ASL Aviation affiliate FlySafair is currently the dominant airline in the domestic market, with a fleet of 31 737s, according to Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery database. Former SAA partner Airlink flies a fleet of close to 70 aircraft up to Embraer 190s and one 737-300 that is going to be returned to the lessor in March 2024.
Cemair and Lift are also operating commercial airline services in the country, including on the busy Johannesburg-Cape Town route. Lift is backed by co-founder Gidon Novick and Global Airways—part of the Takatso Consortium, which is hoping to take a majority stake in SAA. Novick previously ran Comair and Kulula.
SAA does not have a partnership with an airline operating regional aircraft that would replace its former relationship with Airlink. Tsimane said there was no way South African and Airlink could work together. The two have been involved in numerous disputes over several years.
Privatization has been held up by, among other factors, the involvement of Global Airways, an airline that competes with SAA through the Lift brand, in Takatso. Lamola has made it a point to publicly say a further delay in selling the group would not have a materially negative effect on SAA. “The five-year plan is based on [the assumption of] no additional capital,” Lamola said.
However, while its finances may have been improving, SAA in its current form will be struggling to fund fast growth. A new shareholder could accelerate that process.
